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source: Eurozone GDP Growth Rate, Courtey of tradingeconomics.com


source: United States GDP Growth Rate, Courtesy of tradingeconomics.com


The Inverted Yield Curve and Recession

U.S. Economy Tip Toeing on Edge of Recession, Retail Sales and Housing Starts Data Show!

If this is not a recession, then I don’t know what is? Can the U.S. economy get any worse than this? Week after week, we continue to get negative economic growth numbers. The GDP hasn’t moved from 2% for the past few months. I know that the classification of a recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth and the classification of a Depression is 8 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, but come on!

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US Economy Experiencing Slow Growth Confirmed by Non-farm Payroll, Manufacturing, and Retail Sales Data

The Core Retail Sales Report measures changes in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., excluding automobiles. The report shows the rate of consumer spending. It functions as a pace indicator for the U.S. economy, how fast or how slow the growth of the economy is currently progressing. As we can see in the report, the previous reading was 1.0%, the forecasted reading 0.1%, and the actual reading came in at 0.0%. So, this is confirming that U.S. economic growth has slowed down dramatically or is slowly growing.

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Pre-recession Could be Current State of U.S. Economy, Emotionally!

Defining a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth doesn’t tell the whole story of the effect human emotions has on the financial markets. Before there are any consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, there is the impact of human emotions on the financial markets, which should be taken into consideration. So, by the time two quarters of consecutive GDP growth hits the headlines, investors’ emotions would’ve already nose-dived into depression, dragging down the economy with it. That scenario could be the vampire plaguing the current U.S. economy.

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US Treasury 30-Year Bond Yield Hits Record Low, Economy Heading for Recession?

The infamous inverted yield curve is used to forecast economic recession and it too has shown itself a few times recently, flip flopping its way into the hearts of paranoid investors. The take-away from this is that for a true economic recession to occur, the inverted yield curve must remain inverted for many months to qualify as a true predictor of economic recession.

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US Federal Rate cut has come and gone, Now What?

The price of gold has certainly benefitted from the US-China trade war, hitting a six-year high of $1,510. When there are uncertainties in the US dollar and global economy, investors look for safe-haven asset classes to stash their cash. Gold is one of those safe-haven asset classes that investors turn to during times of trouble. In addition, the price of gold is inversely proportional to the price of the US dollar. This means that whenever the price of gold goes up, the price and value of the US dollar goes down. So, as currency traders who trade the USD against other currencies, we should all understand the relationship between the USD and AUX (Gold).

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