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source: Eurozone GDP Growth Rate, Courtey of tradingeconomics.com


source: United States GDP Growth Rate, Courtesy of tradingeconomics.com



The Inverted Yield Curve and Recession

U.S. Economy Boosted by Improved Trade Deficit and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

The Trade Balance, released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods or services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported. A Trade Balance with a negative value is called a trade deficit while a Trade Balance with a positive number is called a trade surplus. As we have mentioned previously a Trade Balance equals the value of exports minus the value of imports.

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Recession Worries Caused Fed to Cut Interest Rate By 25 Basis Points to 1.75 Percent

Even consumers don’t feel all that confident about the economy. The recent Conference Board Consumer Confidence Report for October showed that consumers are less confident about the economy now, than they were a month earlier. The CB Consumer Confidence Report released Tuesday, October 29, 2019, at 10 AM, for October, posted current readings of 125.9 missing forecast of 128.0 and a previous reading of 126.3.

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U.S. Economy Tip Toeing on Edge of Recession, Retail Sales and Housing Starts Data Show!

If this is not a recession, then I don’t know what is? Can the U.S. economy get any worse than this? Week after week, we continue to get negative economic growth numbers. The GDP hasn’t moved from 2% for the past few months. I know that the classification of a recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth and the classification of a Depression is 8 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, but come on!

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US Economy Experiencing Slow Growth Confirmed by Non-farm Payroll, Manufacturing, and Retail Sales Data

The Core Retail Sales Report measures changes in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., excluding automobiles. The report shows the rate of consumer spending. It functions as a pace indicator for the U.S. economy, how fast or how slow the growth of the economy is currently progressing. As we can see in the report, the previous reading was 1.0%, the forecasted reading 0.1%, and the actual reading came in at 0.0%. So, this is confirming that U.S. economic growth has slowed down dramatically or is slowly growing.

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Pre-recession Could be Current State of U.S. Economy, Emotionally!

Defining a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth doesn’t tell the whole story of the effect human emotions has on the financial markets. Before there are any consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, there is the impact of human emotions on the financial markets, which should be taken into consideration. So, by the time two quarters of consecutive GDP growth hits the headlines, investors’ emotions would’ve already nose-dived into depression, dragging down the economy with it. That scenario could be the vampire plaguing the current U.S. economy.

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