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U.S. Economy Stares Recession in the Face, 25 Percent Interest Rate Cut Expected by Fed on Wednesday!

U.S. Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales, and Durable Goods Orders Tumbled in September

By Glenford S Robinson

Released by the National Association of Realtors, the Existing Home Sales Report measures, changes in the annualized number of existing residential buildings, sold during the previous month. This report assists in gauging the strength, of the U.S. housing market, and functions as a key indicator of overall economic strength. So, a subpar reading would, indicate overall economic weakness and a higher than expected reading, would indicate overall economic strength. Let’s see what reading was released.

On Tuesday, October 22, 2019 at 10 AM, New York Time, the Existing Home Sales Report for September, missed forecast of 5.45 Million, posting a dismal score of 5.38 Million, much lower than the previous reading of 5.50 Million.

A higher than expected reading should be perceived as positive for the U.S. economy and bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be perceived as negative for the U.S. economy and bearish for the USD.

The current Existing Home Sales reading missed forecast. Therefore, the U.S. housing market and the U.S. economy currently show weakness and so does the USD. Some traders and investors sell the weaker currency, in a currency pair and some traders and investors, buy the weaker currency in the hope that, buying at low prices will provide profitable gains, when the currency rises in value, in the future.

The Federal Reserve keeps a close eye on economic reporting data, such as the Existing Home Sales Report, and a subpar reading such as the 5.38 Million, should cause the Federal Reserve to cut interest rate, in order to jump start the economy. In fact, we predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, this coming Wednesday, October 30th. It would be highly surprising if the agency does not cut interest rates.

The U.S. Census Bureau, New Home Sales Report, measures the annualized number of new single-family homes, sold during the previous month. The report plays a more impactful role, when released ahead of the Existing Home Sales Report, because the reports tightly correlates with each other. The report came in well below forecast posting a reading of 701,000 missing forecast of 710, 000 and a previous reading of 706, 000 on Thursday, October 24, 2019 at 10 AM, New York Time.

A higher than expected reading should be perceived as positive for the U.S economy and bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be perceived as negative for the U.S. economy and bearish for the USD.

Based on the current New Homes Sales Report, the U.S. economy continues to show slow growth, signaling that the expansion phase, of the business cycle could be coming to an end. The economy began expanding from June 2009, right after the stock market crash of 2008, until now, 11 years later.  Yet another confirmation that the U.S. economy has indeed fallen on hard times. The Federal Reserve usually jumps into action during these trying times, by implementing monetary policy tools, such as cutting interest rates and providing liquidity to the financial system. These current New Home Sales numbers serve as another indication that the Federal Reserve will possibly cut interest rate this coming Wednesday, October 30.

The U.S. Census Bureau Core Durable Goods Orders measures changes in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, excluding transportation items. Because aircraft orders are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of ordering trends. Higher readings indicate increased manufacturing activity.

A higher than expected reading should be perceived as positive for the U.S. economy and bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be perceived as negative for the U.S. economy and bearish for the USD.

The core Durable Goods Orders for September came in, at -0.3% missing a less impressive forecast of -0.2% and well below a previous reading of 0.3%. These results tell us that consumers have stopped buying durable goods items, which further confirms the decrease in existing home sales and new home sales, no new homes changing hands, means no purchasing of refrigerators, stoves, bedroom sets, or other durable items.

Companies belonging to cyclical industries produce durable goods items. What is a cyclical industry? A Cyclical Industry and companies within it depend on the business cycle or economic cycle for profitability. This means that when the economy or business cycle enters the expansion phase, of the business or economic cycle, cyclical industries and companies prosper with large profits and high employee retention. However, when the economy enters the negative or slow phases of the business cycle, such as the stagflation and recession phases, profits decrease and employee retention decreases producing large layoffs, thereby supplying large numbers of unemployed people to the economy. Thus, further slowing down the growth of an already slow growing economy. As a result of these economic obstacles, U.S. recession fears prevail and the Federal Reserve will step in and cut interest rate even lower this coming Wednesday from its current 2.0% mark to 1.75%.

“I know that I sound like a psychic, but what do I have to lose? Absolutely nothing! And, a lot to gain, from fine-tuning my psychic ability!) In fact, if I am wrong, it won’t be the first time, but If I am right, then I am Genius! I just need to be right, once. By the way, my first son’s name is Genius. That’s a fact!”

Companies within cyclical industries produce Durable Goods and suffer when the economy slows. Non-cyclical industries and the companies within them on the other hand, do better when the economy slows. These companies play the role of recession proof companies. Companies in the insurance, utilities, medicine, water, and personal hygiene, fits this category. It doesn’t matter how slow the economy gets, people will still need to brush their teeth, pay their utility bills and pay their car insurance.

Cyclical companies produce Durable Goods items such as dishwashers, bedroom sets, refrigerators, and other big-ticket items. These items usually find themselves on the secondary priority list, not the first priority list as do the recession proof items. Therefore, during trying economic times, consumers bypass purchasing durable goods items causing companies producing these items to underperform in the stock market, during slow economy growth periods.

I won’t go into specifics as to which companies belong where and what stocks are involved. I will leave that up to your professional advisor, who will advise you on such specifics. I am just your financial information provider, not your advisor as yet.

Most people’s 401k statement had, negative returns this past quarter, and continued slow economic growth from the past few months, should be blamed for that. How did I know that? Would you like to know? Well, it is just obvious!

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Mortgage Applications Report, measures changes in the number of new applications for mortgages backed by the MBA, during the reported week.

A higher than expected reading should be perceived as positive for the U.S economy and bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be perceived as negative for the U.S. economy and bearish for the USD.

So, how do you think our MBA Mortgage Applications Report did? Do you think it did good? Or Do you think it did bad? Put your answers in the comment area below the video on Youtube.

Well, on Wednesday, October 23, 2019 at 7 am, New York Time, the MBA Mortgage Application for the past week, ending October 18, 2019 came in at -11.9%, well below the previous week’s reading of 0.5%. This result represents the largest decline since October 9, 2015, when refinance applications went down 17.1% and application to buy a home fell 3.6%. 

On the Global front, the Turkish Lira rose on Wednesday, after U.S. President Donald Trump, lift sanctions on Turkey, for implementing permanent ceasefire, on the Syrian Kurds. In the middle of the month, the Turkish military, attacked Northeast Syria and the U.S., immediately imposed sanctions. The Turkish Lira jumped 1.4% to $5.723 after the announcement, the highest value the currency has risen, since the beginning of October, at around 11.50 am, New York Time.

“Why Am I talking about the Turkish Lira? I am talking about the Turkish Lira because many of my great friends are Turkish, and they helped me in my business endeavors.”

Investors continue to keep an eye on Brexit developments, after British lawmakers approved the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, but then rejected Prime Minister Johnson’s, withdrawal timetable. Extension after extension continues to dominate the faith of the U.K. Brexit deal. This past Friday European Union Officials, delayed the decision of how long, an extension of the Brexit deadline they should allow the U.K. In fact, without a hard deadline, members of the British Parliament have little to no incentives to reach a compromise across party lines. This has always been the prevailing problem facing any Brexit deal.

Will there ever be a Brexit deal in our life time? I don’t think so! I feel very bad though, for the consumers who continue to pay the economic price for Brexit.

The New York Federal Reserve, poured $77.343 billion in liquidity into the financial markets this past Friday. The Fed said the agency took in $67.593 billion in U.S. Treasuries and $9.75 billion in mortgage securities, in a repurchase agreement operation, that will expire Monday. This monetary policy approach, is yet another approach, used by the Federal Reserve to jump-start, the economy. This particular round of economic stimulus, will ensure that the financial system, remains liquid by having enough cash available, for short-term borrowing rates, to remain normal. The less cash or liquidity available in the economy, the higher the overnight borrowing rates will be, which spells trouble for the economy. The Fed have been using several economic stimulus approaches to try and jump start the U.S. economy, for quite some time now. This proves to be another confirmation that the economy continues to struggle. The next stimulus approach, will probably be, the cutting of interest rate by 25bps, this coming Wednesday.

US Economy Stares Recession in the Face

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