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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased; Economy to Continue Expanding in Near-Term

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The Conference Board
Mar 21, 2019, 10:00 ET

NEW YORK, March 21, 2019 /PRNewswire/ — The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in February to 111.5 (2016 = 100), following no change in January, and a 0.1 percent decline in December.

“The US LEI increased in February for the first time in five months,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “February’s improvement was driven by accommodative financial conditions and a rebound in stock prices, which more than offset weaknesses in the labor market components. Despite the latest results, the US LEI’s growth rate has slowed over the past six months, suggesting that while the economy will continue to expand in the near-term, its pace of growth could decelerate by year end.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in February to 105.9 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in January, and a 0.4 percent increase in December.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. was unchanged in February at 107.0 (2016 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in January and a 0.4 percent increase in December.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers’ new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes:

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased | The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:

Business Cycle Indicators | The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

2018

2019

6-month

Dec

Jan

Feb

Aug to Feb

Leading Index

111.3

111.3

111.5

p

  Percent Change

-0.1

0.0

0.2

p

0.5

  Diffusion

65.0

55.0

75.0

60.0

Coincident Index

105.6

105.7

105.9

p

  Percent Change

0.4

0.1

0.2

p

1.1

  Diffusion

100.0

75.0

87.5

100.0

Lagging Index

106.4

107.0

r

107.0

p

  Percent Change

0.4

0.6

r

0.0

p

1.9

  Diffusion

71.4

57.1

50.0

100.0

p  Preliminary     r  Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2016

Source:  The Conference Board

SOURCE The Conference Board

Related Links

http://www.conference-board.org

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