page contents
Image of the US Economy

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased; Economy to Continue Expanding in Near-Term

News Provided By

The Conference Board
Mar 21, 2019, 10:00 ET

NEW YORK, March 21, 2019 /PRNewswire/ — The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in February to 111.5 (2016 = 100), following no change in January, and a 0.1 percent decline in December.

“The US LEI increased in February for the first time in five months,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “February’s improvement was driven by accommodative financial conditions and a rebound in stock prices, which more than offset weaknesses in the labor market components. Despite the latest results, the US LEI’s growth rate has slowed over the past six months, suggesting that while the economy will continue to expand in the near-term, its pace of growth could decelerate by year end.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in February to 105.9 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in January, and a 0.4 percent increase in December.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. was unchanged in February at 107.0 (2016 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in January and a 0.4 percent increase in December.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers’ new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes:

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased | The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:

Business Cycle Indicators | The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

2018

2019

6-month

Dec

Jan

Feb

Aug to Feb

Leading Index

111.3

111.3

111.5

p

  Percent Change

-0.1

0.0

0.2

p

0.5

  Diffusion

65.0

55.0

75.0

60.0

Coincident Index

105.6

105.7

105.9

p

  Percent Change

0.4

0.1

0.2

p

1.1

  Diffusion

100.0

75.0

87.5

100.0

Lagging Index

106.4

107.0

r

107.0

p

  Percent Change

0.4

0.6

r

0.0

p

1.9

  Diffusion

71.4

57.1

50.0

100.0

p  Preliminary     r  Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2016

Source:  The Conference Board

SOURCE The Conference Board

Related Links

http://www.conference-board.org

Check Also

US Federal Rate cut has come and gone, Now What?

The price of gold has certainly benefitted from the US-China trade war, hitting a six-year high of $1,510. When there are uncertainties in the US dollar and global economy, investors look for safe-haven asset classes to stash their cash. Gold is one of those safe-haven asset classes that investors turn to during times of trouble. In addition, the price of gold is inversely proportional to the price of the US dollar. This means that whenever the price of gold goes up, the price and value of the US dollar goes down. So, as currency traders who trade the USD against other currencies, we should all understand the relationship between the USD and AUX (Gold).

US Interest Rate Cut Sentiment Keeping EUR/USD Above 1.1200

If our prediction holds true, we can expect that the 1.1200 area of support could quickly become an area of resistance all day Thursday, July 25; and may give way Friday a t 8:30 am when US Q2 GDP is expected to come in lower than previous readings.

US Retail Sales Rose, But Building Permits Fall; Fed Rate Cut Decision Pending

The monthly building permit report is watched closely by traders, investors, economists, and by the Federal Reserve. Because all related factors associated with the construction of a building are very important economic activities (for example, financing and employment), the building permit report can give major hints as to the current state of the economy in the not-so-distant future. So, the fact that the latest building permit numbers came in well below estimates, there is cause for concern and the Feds may very will cut interest rate to jump start the economy by putting a cap on the progress of deflation.

US Inflation Rate Fell from 1.8% to 1.6% Giving Strong Indication of a Fed Rate Cut in July

With a strong US dollar, the stock market suffers. This was also one of the reasons why President Donald Trump lashed out at the Feds claiming that the agency was not doing enough to stimulate the economy, condemning the agency for hiking interest rates two times this year, thus stifling the efforts of the US President to stimulate the economy when he championed the passing of legislation which allows huge tax breaks to companies.

US Inflation Rate Drops Fueling Speculation of a Fed Rate Cut

A Fed rate cut of about 25-basis points is more in-line with the hints the Fed Chair was signaling.

Growth stock image

Willamette Valley Vineyards Posts a Profit for 2018

Jim Bernau, Founder and President of the winery, said "We are pleased Income from Operations was up 15% for the year. Earnings are affected by the dividend cost as we raised the money needed for the planned winery near Dundee prior to construction. As we are able to deploy these development funds, we expect the projected earnings to more than offset the higher dividend costs."

Investing pennies

SEC Proposes Offering Reforms for Business Development Companies and Registered Closed-End Funds

The proposed amendments would modify the registration, communications, and offering processes available to BDCs and registered closed-end funds, building on offering practices that operating companies currently use.

%d bloggers like this: