Partially Transcribed and Completely
Edited by Glenford S. Robinson
00:05 Hello, I’m Klaus De Vries, Associate
00:08 Economists at the Conference Board, and
00:09 this is your January Economics Watch
00:12 Brief for Europe. What can we expect from
00:15 growth this year? The Euro area economy
00:17 will continue to moderate which is
00:20 mostly related to a weaker global growth
00:22 environment; domestic demand is stable.
00:25 It’s just over 1.5 percent annual growth.
00:28 We don’t expect this to change
00:30 substantially this year as the labor
00:32 market as well as business lending
00:34 conditions are still favorable. The
00:37 European Central Bank has signaled it is
00:39 committed to keep monetary policy
00:41 accommodative, and the first rate hike is
00:44 only expected towards the end of 2019 or
00:47 later, which European economies posed the
00:50 biggest risks while Germany posted
00:53 negative growth in the third quarter.
00:55 This was mostly due to temporary factors
00:57 such as the bottlenecks in automotive
00:59 production as well as adverse weather
01:02 conditions; as these factors subside,
01:05 the German economy will return to a more
01:07 solid growth path. This is a reassuring
01:10 perspective for the entire Euro area and
01:12 especially for neighboring economies,
01:14 such as the Netherlands, Austria, and
01:17 Denmark. Civil protests in France in
01:21 November and December over economic
01:23 reforms may weigh heavily on the growth
01:26 results for the final quarter of 2018.
01:29 A resolution of the protest should lead
01:32 to a French economy resuming its growth
01:34 path in the first quarter of 2019
01:37 on-wards in Italy while the dispute
01:40 between Rome and Brussels regarding the
01:42 public budget has subsided, the economy
01:45 is not expected to bounce back. The risks
01:48 of a downturn in 2019 have increased in
01:51 contrast to the more stable outlook
01:53 elsewhere in Europe; the same may be
01:55 assumed for the United Kingdom
01:57 especially in case a no-deal Brexit is
01:59 not avoided.
02:01 Despite the moderate outlook, the
02:04 unemployment rate in the Euro area has
02:06 remained stable at 8.1 percent,
02:08 since the summer of 2018.
02:11 With unemployment reaching a decade low,
02:14 companies feel the pain of talent
02:16 shortages, especially in an aging labor
02:18 market. Sectors, such as pay-rolling
02:21 transportation, and computer services are
02:24 among the worst affected by labor
02:26 shortages. As the economy keeps growing
02:29 above its potential rate, we don’t expect
02:31 these shortages to fade away in 2019.
02:34 Consequently, wage pressures have been
02:37 rising in recent months and are likely
02:38 to impact on business profitability. I am
02:42 Klaus De Vries, and this was your Economics
02:45 Watch Brief for Europe.
Mr. Glenford S. Robinson is the Chief Executive Officer and Founder of Mstardom Finance. He is the editor-in-chief of News and Magazine article publishing. Mr. Robinson is also the lead developer of the Mstardom Finance Platform at Mstardom.com. He is passionate about quantitative finance and technologies associated with that discipline, such as python-based algorithmic programing. Mr. Robinson is also a Clinical Laboratory Scientist currently practicing laboratory medicine. When Mr. Robinson is not practicing laboratory medicine, writing articles, or studying finance, he is creating mathematical and statistical modules, using quantitative approaches to identify trading opportunities in the Forex and Stock Market.